India-Gulf connections: workers, oil tankers, trade routes

By Ramachandran Rajeev Kumar — 2026-01-16

By Ramachandran Rajeev Kumar

The Numbers That Define India's Existence

Over 9.25 million Indians are employed across six Middle Eastern countries, making this "the biggest migration corridor, even more than the Mexico-US one."

The Middle East accounts for 44.6% of India's crude oil imports. Nearly half of India's liquefied natural gas comes from Qatar. More than two-thirds of India's oil imports and nearly 50% of LNG pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE is India's third-largest trading partner after China and the US, with $50 billion bilateral trade. During the Qatari Emir's February 2025 visit, both countries elevated their relationship to a Strategic Partnership and agreed to double bilateral trade by 2030.

This isn't foreign policy. This is survival infrastructure.

If the Strait of Hormuz closes for a week, India's economy stops. If Gulf states deport Indian workers, remittances collapse and unemployment explodes. If Saudi-Iran tensions escalate, India's energy security evaporates.

India's Gulf pivot isn't optional. It's existential.

What India Gets From the Gulf

1. Energy Security (The Jugular Vein)

India imports 85% of its oil. The Middle East supplies nearly half of it.

Why this matters:

India has strategically repositioned from "Look West policy" to "Link West policy", emphasizing deepened collaboration through economic, security, and cultural ties.

The chokepoint vulnerability: Two-thirds of India's oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz—the 21-mile-wide channel between Iran and Oman that Iran has repeatedly threatened to close.

If Hormuz closes: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 40 days of supply. Then what?

Diversification efforts:

2. Remittances (The Financial Lifeline)

9.25 million Indians in the Gulf send home $50-60 billion annually—one of the world's largest remittance flows.

What this funds:

The risk: Gulf states are Saudizing/Emiratization their workforces. Preference for nationals over expats. India's worker share has been slowly declining.

India's response: Shift focus from manual labor to skilled professionals—doctors, engineers, IT specialists who are harder to replace.

3. Trade and Investment

UAE-India bilateral trade: $50 billion. Saudi-India trade: $43 billion. Qatar-India trade: $15 billion.

Beyond hydrocarbons:

The new pivot: India's critical minerals partnerships with Gulf countries—from oil to green energy transition. UAE and Saudi positioning as clean energy hubs. India needs lithium, cobalt, rare earths—Gulf states are gateway to African and Latin American suppliers.

The Geopolitical Tightrope: Balancing Everyone

Here's the impossible challenge: The Gulf isn't unified. It's fractured—and India needs all sides.

The Saudi-Iran Divide

Saudi Arabia + UAE (Sunni bloc): India's primary energy and investment partners.

Iran (Shia power): Shares border with Pakistan, critical for Chabahar Port (India's Afghanistan gateway), gas pipeline potential.

India's position: Friends with both. Diplomatically neutral. Practically pragmatic.

The tightrope:

The Israel-Palestine Quagmire

In the past two years, India's stance has become more "interest-driven" and less neutral.

India's Israel relationship:

India's Arab relationship:

The balancing act:

The US-China Shadow

As US-China tensions rise, Gulf states become India's strategic hedge.

US wants: India to align with Quad, counter China, reduce dependence on Russian/Iranian oil.

China offers: Belt and Road infrastructure, cheap manufacturing, no strategic demands.

India's Gulf pivot advantage: The Gulf doesn't force choices. UAE trades with China ($100B), invests in India ($75B), buys US weapons, and hosts both militaries. India can do the same.

Translation: India uses Gulf relationships to maintain strategic autonomy—not fully aligned with US, not dependent on China, hedging through Middle East partnerships.

The Risks India Faces

1. Workforce Replacement

Saudization, Emiratization, nationalization drives across the Gulf mean fewer jobs for Indians.

The numbers:

India's buffer: Skilled professionals harder to replace. Blue-collar workers vulnerable.

2. Regional Instability

Yemen war. Syria conflict. Iran-Israel tensions. Houthi attacks on shipping.

One miscalculation = Hormuz closure = India's energy crisis.

India has no military power to protect shipping lanes (unlike US, China). Dependent on others for Gulf security.

3. Renewable Energy Transition

Gulf states diversifying away from oil. India needs to lock in long-term energy contracts before global demand drops and Gulf states pivot entirely to renewables/hydrogen.

The window: 10-15 years to secure advantageous oil/gas deals before energy transitions render them irrelevant.

What India Must Do Now

1. Deepen Defense and Security Ties

Current: Minimal defense cooperation with Gulf states.

Needed:

Why: Security partnerships create stickiness beyond economic ties. US-Saudi relationship survives oil price crashes because of defense interdependence.

2. Diversify Within the Gulf

Over-dependence on UAE-Saudi axis leaves India vulnerable if their priorities shift.

Expand:

3. Build the Chabahar-INSTC Corridor

Chabahar Port (Iran) + International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) = India's direct access to Afghanistan, Central Asia, Russia.

Status: Underutilized due to US sanctions on Iran.

Fix: Negotiate US exemptions (arguing strategic counter to China's Belt and Road). Make Chabahar economically viable even under sanctions.

4. Skill Upgradation for Workers

Current Gulf workers: Construction, domestic help, low-skilled.

Future demand: Healthcare, IT, hospitality, logistics, green energy tech.

India's move: Government-funded skill training targeting Gulf labor market needs. Send engineers, not laborers.

5. Energy Transition Partnerships

Gulf states investing $2 trillion in renewables and hydrogen by 2030.

India's play:

Result: As Gulf pivots from oil sellers to clean energy hubs, India pivots from oil buyer to clean energy partner.

The Brutal Reality

India doesn't have the luxury of picking sides in the Middle East. We need:

The West says: Choose us or China. China says: Join Belt and Road or lose out. India says: We'll take Gulf relationships and keep our options open.

This isn't fence-sitting. It's strategic depth.

The Gulf pivot allows India to hedge against US unreliability, Chinese aggression, and Russian unpredictability—without committing fully to any bloc.

The 9.25 million Indian workers aren't just labor. They're strategic assets. The $100 billion trade isn't just commerce. It's leverage. The 45% oil imports aren't just energy. They're the lubricant that keeps India's engine running.

Lose the Gulf, and India loses strategic autonomy. Simple as that.

Sources:

Ramachandran Rajeev Kumar is the founder of BarathVector. Agree? Disagree? The debate continues in the comments.